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Competitive Long Island, Hudson Valley Races Seen As Key To What Party Controls House

As Election Day draws closer, political pundits are closely watching three New York congressional races that could determine which party controls the House next year.

From left: Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, Laura Gillen, Rep. Marc Molinaro, Josh Riley, Rep. Mike Lawler, and Mondaire Jones.

From left: Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, Laura Gillen, Rep. Marc Molinaro, Josh Riley, Rep. Mike Lawler, and Mondaire Jones.

Photo Credit: Campaign Facebook Pages

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Freshmen Republican Reps. Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro, and Anthony D’Esposito – supporters of former President Donald Trump in districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020 – are all hoping for repeat wins in November.

Here’s a closer look at their races.

17th District: Lawler vs. Jones

Lawler, whose 17th District represents all of Rockland and Putnam counties, most of northern Westchester County, and portions of southern Dutchess County, is facing off against Democratic former congressman Mondaire Jones.

Prior to serving in Congress, The Rockland County native from Suffern was a member of the New York State Assembly from 2021 to 2022, representing the 97th district in Rockland County.

He previously worked in the Westchester County Executive's Office as an advisor to Rob Astorino and executive director of the New York State Republican Party.

Described by Politico as an “avowed moderate,” Lawler has stated he opposes a federal abortion ban though he personally opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest, or if the mother’s life is at risk.

He has stated his priorities in a second term would include affordability, border security, immigration reform, and addressing antisemitism.

Jones, who was one of the two first openly gay Black members of Congress in history, previously represented the 17th District from 2021 to 2023.

The Rockland County native from Nyack told CNN he doesn’t believe that Lawler wouldn’t vote for a nationwide abortion ban. He also called Lawler “unfit to serve” after the congressman admitted to once donning blackface while dressed up as Michael Jackson.

“How can anyone who doesn’t believe that what he did in 2006 was wrong continue to represent a diverse community like this?” Jones told the outlet.

He stated his priorities in Congress would be lowering costs for Lower Hudson Valley residents, defending democracy, raising wages, and “stopping Republicans from banning abortion.”

Since September, polls cited by FiveThirtyEight.com have shown the candidates separated by just a couple percentage points, with Lawler holding a slight edge.

19th District: Molinaro vs. Riley

Molinaro, whose 19th District represents portions of the Catskills, Hudson Valley, and Finger Lakes regions, is facing off against Democrat Josh Riley, a lawyer and former policy analyst at the US Department of Labor.

A Westchester County native from Yonkers, Molinaro previously served in the New York State Assembly and was county executive of Dutchess County. He was also the Republican nominee for New York governor in 2018, ultimately losing to Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo.

During his time in Congress, he voted for the Parents Bill of Rights in Education Act, which would require public schools to disclose information including budget, curriculum, and school performance to parents. The bill passed the House and later stalled in the Senate.

Molinaro's campaign has stated he will work to reduce the tax burden on families, support policies he believes will lower inflation, and streamline and simplify the tax code. He also vowed to work to increase energy production while reducing carbon emissions and expand mental health services.

Riley, a Broome County native who clerked on the Ninth Circuit US Court of Appeals, also served as general counsel to former US Sen. Al Franken.

The Democratic candidate said one of his priorities in Congress would be increasing the number of border agents and stopping the flow of fentanyl at the US-Mexico border. He also promised to reduce taxes on the middle class.

Polling cited by FiveThirtyEight.com showed Molinaro up nine points over Riley in July, while a September poll showed Riley in the lead by three points.

4th District: D’Esposito vs. Gillen

D’Esposito is facing Democratic challenger Laura Gillen in the 4th District, which covers central and southern Nassau County on Long Island.

A native of Island Park, D’Esposito was a police officer with the NYPD’s 73rd Precinct Detective Squad, Military and Extended Leave Desk. He worked for the department from 2006 until his retirement in 2020.

In 2016, he was appointed as a councilman on the Hempstead town council and won a full term the following year. He served on the council until his election to Congress in 2022.

D’Esposito has stated he’s seeking re-election to continue fighting for “commonsense Long Island values,” and that voters see him as “more moderate” compared to Democrats.

"Many people feel the Democrats in New York have gone too far to the left. They’ve seen the implementation of cashless bail,” he told Roll Call. “They’ve seen the state legislature really try to change suburban communities into what we see in the five boroughs.”

In September, D’Esposito denied reporting by The New York Times that he gave his mistress and his fiancée’s daughter jobs in his district office.

He allegedly paid them nearly $30,000 in taxpayer funds in a violation of House ethics rules, the outlet reports.

D’Esposito’s opponent, Democrat Laura Gillen, served as Hempstead town supervisor from 2018 to 2020. She has worked as an attorney and as an adjunct law professor at Hofstra University.

She stated she’s running to “reclaim” Long Island’s tradition of bipartisan representation after criticizing D’Esposito as “more focused on partisan voters, rather than working for the district.”

Polling cited by FiveThirtyEight.com shows the two are locked in a tight race, with a July poll showing Gillen up seven percentage points and one in August showing D’Esposito leading by six points.

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